If Only Andy Abraham Hadn’t Gone Second

One of the things that we here at Eurolemurs like to bang on about is song order. For example, in the 2011 contest, we are fairly convinced that Azerbaijan won in part because its biggest competitors (meaning Sweden and maybe Ireland and possibly Bosnia & Herzegovina) were drawn in the first half of the running order.

When the European Broadcasting Union announced that the Swedish producers of this year’s Song Contest would determine the running order, rather than leaving it up to bowls of numbers in plastic balls, we and gazillions of die hard Eurovision fans thought it was a decision fraught with fraughtness. But how much does song order really determine how well a song finishes?

Ewan Spence, the man behind ESC Insight and underneath Terry Vision, decided to use the power of math(s) to find out: to wit, “How Much Influence Does The Running Order Really Have?” Not only is the analysis insightful, but the conclusion is, in my mind, spot-on. Definitely your must-read Eurovision article of the month. (YES, THE ENTIRE MONTH.)

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